How to Prepare a Financial Forecast Even If You Hate Numbers
Whether you run a startup or side hustle, creating a financial forecast even if you hate numbers can feel daunting. Yet, a clear, simple forecast empowers you to manage cash flow, make smarter decisions, and impress potential investors. This guide breaks down how to prepare a financial forecast in a way that’s practical, non-intimidating, and actionable—even if spreadsheets make you squirm.
1. Start with What You Know: Historical Data
Use your past performance—revenue, expenses, and cash flow—as a baseline. Even if your track record is short, this historical data frames realistic projections. Financial experts agree: blending historical data and market benchmarks is key to improving forecast accuracy.
Tip: Begin with just one month, then expand to quarterly or annual views.
2. Build a Simple Revenue Model
Few things are scarier than revenue assumptions—unless they’re easy!
- Step 1: Segment your revenue streams (e.g., product, service, subscriptions).
- Step 2: Estimate basic inputs—number of customers × average price.
- Step 3: Apply a conservative growth rate (10–20% per month is common).
This easy model keeps your numbers meaningful without being overwhelming.
3. List Your Costs Clearly
Break down into two categories:
- Fixed costs: rent, salaries, subscriptions—expenses that stay the same.
- Variable costs: cost of goods sold (COGS), marketing, freelancer fees—costs tied to growth volume.
EY recommends tailoring your COGS based on your business model—whether SaaS or physical products.
4. Simplify Cash Flow Forecasting
Transform your P&L into a cash forecast by timing when money hits or leaves your account:
- Revenue: forecast cash in by customer payment terms.
- Expenses: schedule payouts—some are monthly, others quarterly or annually.
This helps you avoid “surprise” breaks in cash and plan for lean months.
5. Use Templates or Tools
Templates take the guesswork out—try:
- HubSpot’s startup financial projections template.
- SVB’s finance guide for startups
Using a spreadsheet or simple tool means no heavy math—just basic data entry.
6. Make Conservative Assumptions
When in doubt, err on the cautious side:
- Lower growth rates
- Higher expense estimates
- Add a buffer (e.g., +10% contingency)
Preferred CFOs warn that forecasts are blueprints—not crystal balls. Conservative assumptions help guide direction without crises
7. Build Scenarios
Create three versions of your forecast: base case, best case, and worst case. This approach aids in contingency planning and helps you stay adaptable.
BDC’s guide recommends scenario modeling to prepare for finance fluxes, and it’s easy to do in any spreadsheet .
8. Review and Update Regularly
A forecast should never be static:
- Every quarter: revisit your assumptions
- Every month: check actual vs. forecast numbers and adjust the next forecast
SVB advises updating financial forecasts at least bi-annually, more often if conditions change kruzeconsulting.com+3chartexpo.com+3cfohub.com+3svb.com.
9. Tell Your Story with the Numbers
Make your forecast more than a spreadsheet—transform it into a narrative:
- Explain how growth will unfold and why costs rise
- Highlight key milestones (e.g., hire dates, launch weeks)
Kruze Consulting calls a forecast the “financial story” of your startup—essential for investor confidence.
10. Lean on Support When Needed
No one expects non-finance founders to build perfect models. Seek guidance:
- Use advisors or part-time CFOs
- Join programs like those at Foundersmax for mentorship and template resources
Enlisting support ensures your forecast is credible and manageable.
Creating a financial forecast even if you hate numbers is absolutely possible using templates, basic assumptions, and regular updates. Start small, stay conservative, and keep it simple. With this approach, you’ll gain clarity, confidence, and control—ready to steer your startup toward smarter growth and stronger investor conversations.
